Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
